Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Untungkah Pelaburan Dari Pinjaman Bank?



"Kawan di tempat kerja banyak mencadangkan untuk ambil pinjaman untuk dilaburkan...ramai yang sudah lama mengambil pinjaman begini sudah boleh melancong setiap bulan kerana dividen yang lumayan..."

Isu meminjam untuk melabur sebenarnya bukanlah isu baru, malah bukan juga isu yang ranum dalam dunia kewangan. Kerana itu isu begini tidak begitu mendapat tempat dalam kajian akademik berintensiti tinggi, khususnya dalam ruang lingkup perbahasan kewangan Islam.

Saya mengambil pendekatan illustrasi berangka untuk membincang dan mengkritik kaedah pelaburan dengan pinjaman yang dicadangkan di atas, dengan meneliti realiti dunia kewangan dan amalan yang biasanya dilakukan oleh pelabur runcit di negara kita.

Secara umumnya, idea meminjam dan melabur timbul apabila ada instrumen pelaburan mampu memberikan pulangan pada kadar sederhana-tinggi dan konsisten (dalam erti kata lain, kurang variasi dalam kadar pulangan tahunan, atau boleh juga difahami sebagai berisiko rendah), dalam kes di Malaysia biasanya instrumen yang digunakan adalah ASB. Secara matematiknya, apabila kadar pulangan pelaburan lebih tinggi daripada kadar bunga pinjaman (atau dalam pembiayaan Islam dipanggil kadar keuntungan), maka aktiviti ini akan menghasilkan keuntungan.


Saya angkakan idea ini dengan harapan proses penghadaman idea dan kritikan lebih mudah diikuti.

(klik pada rajah untuk pandangan lebih jelas)

Jika dilihat pada angka di atas, si peminjam (katakan namanya  Tipah) meminjam sebanyak RM10,000 daripada sebuah bank (katakan meminjam daripada Marchbank) dengan interest sebanyak 5% dan perlu dibayar selama 5 tahun, sekaligus mewujudkan komitmen bayaran tahunannya kepada Marchbank sebanyak RM2,309.75 setahun

Tipah kemudiannya membawa semua RM10,000 tunai yang dipinjam untuk dilaburkan ke satu dana pelaburan (katakan ASX) yang memberi pulangan pada kadar tertentu yang lebih tinggi daripada interest yang dikenakan (katakan konsisten 7% setahun selama 5 tahun). 

Hasilnya setelah 5 tahun, Tipah telah membayar sejumlah RM11,548.75 kepada Marchbank dan selama 5 tahun itu jumlah terkumpul yang dilaburkan di dalam ASX adalah sebanyak RM14,025.52 menjadikan Tipah untung sebanyak RM2,476.77.

Dalam petikan di atas ada disebut bahawa dividen tahunan dikeluarkan setiap tahun untuk tujuan melancong. Justeru aliran tunainya akan jadi seperti di bawah ini:

(klik pada rajah untuk pandangan lebih jelas)

Dalam kes ini, Tipah mengeluarkan dividen yang diterimanya setiap tahun untuk melancong, menjadikan baki pelaburan pada akhir tahun kekal pada RM10,000. Justeru jumlah yang diperoleh daripada pelaburan dalam ASX adalah nilai pokok dan dividen tahunan (RM10,000 + [RM700 setahun x 5 tahun]), iaitu sebanyak RM13,500. Dalam hal ini, Tipah masih lagi untung, tetapi pada jumlah yang lebih kecil iaitu RM1,951.25.

Kritikan.

Dari sudut matematiknya, cara pelaburan dengan meminjam seperti di atas adalah tidak begitu menguntungkan.

Illustrasi di bawah adalah situasi di mana pelaburan dibuat dengan cara simpanan.
(klik pada rajah untuk pandangan lebih jelas)

Katakan Tipah tidak meminjam, sebaliknya hanya menyimpan di ASX setiap tahun sebanyak nilai ansuran yang sepatutnya dibayar kepada bank (dalam kes ini RM2,309.75) dan tiada sebarang pengeluaran dibuat sepanjang 5 tahun. Jumlah terkumpul pada akhir tahun kelima adalah seperti rajah di atas iaitu sebanyak RM14,212.55 (berbanding RM14,025.52 dengan menggunakan kaedah pinjaman bank).

Seandainya Tipah melabur melalui simpanan pada jumlah yang sama dan dalam masa sama mengeluarkan RM700 setiap tahun untuk melancong, jumlah terkumpul pada akhir tahun kelima adalah sebanyak RM13,687 (masih lebih baik berbanding RM13,500 dengan menggunakan pinjaman bank).

Apa yang jelas, Tipah tidak perlu membayar apa-apa kepada bank dan semua jumlah akhir yang diterima adalah miliknya.

Saya hentikan perbincangan setakat di sini dahulu dengan kesimpulan bahawa melabur dengan cara menyimpan lebih menguntungkan berbanding dengan cara meminjam. Illustrasi berangka yang saya tunjukkan memang tidak mewakili semua keadaan. Situasi akan sedikit berbeza dengan menukar kombinasi kadar interest pinjaman dengan kadar pulangan pelaburan, dan  akan dibincangkan lebih lanjut pada masa akan datang. 

Untuk setakat ini, mesej utama yang cuba diketengahkan adalah melabur dengan cara menyimpan lebih selamat dan lebih terjamin berbanding melabur dengan cara meminjam. Yang terlebih penting dalam membuat pelaburan adalah bersederhana dalam menetapkan matlamat pelaburan kerana kesilapan dan kerugian akan lebih mudah berlaku apabila keputusan dibuat dalam keadaan ghairah.

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